Poll

Should Risk Architecture IPO be approved?

Yes (would greatly appreciate if you state why)

100% - 18
No (would greatly appreciate if you state why)

0% - 0
Total: 18

#1 2010-01-10 02:28:25

AndyGrant
Moderator
Registered: 2008-02-28
Posts: 1748
Website

Should Risk Architecture IPO be approved?

Following feedback from the community, i decided to submit this IPO application.

While, neither an introduction of me, nor of the idea behind this IPO should be necessary, feel free to ask questions here and i'll just jump straight down to business:

First, like in any architecture, let's start off with the foundation, the pre-IPO balance-sheet:

ASSETS:
Cash: 0.00
Stocks: 40304.59

These 40k L$ worth of stocks are:

FED: 8816 (based on avg price of 1.75)
CR: 10729 (based on avg price of 1.02)
SAS: 6207 (based on avg price of 1.70)
SLG: 3799 (based on avg price of 0.89)

In the IPO the aim is to raise 60k L$, so the total networth is ~100k L$. Yes that's extremely small market cap, but that's also the point.

Shareprice is set to 0.50, i find precisely this value most perfect, because: at ISE minimum price change is constant at 0.01 L$ (regardless of price), and because the minimum price change excedes transaction fee at the level of 0.50, this helps to counter bidriggers. After the IPO is completed the balance-sheet would look something like this:

Cash: 59400.00
Stocks: 40304.59
Total Assets:  99704.59

Shares outstanding: 200609 where 80609 shares represent my asset contribution, and the remaining 60% represent the cash contribution from public investors. 

With this basic foundation, and very limited capital we can now take a look at the allocations, i spent some time trying to figure this one out, heres the result: There are basically 2 rules for allocation:

1. At all times at least 30% of assets shall be kept available in cash.
2. Investments shall be diversified in a way that does not jump too far away from the "desired portfolio structure" (see below).
(on special occations, if the right opportunity exists, it may be desirable to temporary go beyond those 2 limits, but only over a limited time-period)

That, i believe should define the foundation and some basic structural oversight, now over to that "desired portfolio". It is always controversial, and upto lengthy discussion what is and what isn't a well received, generally accepted portfolio. The DOW continues to be criticized for various valid reasons, but remains a decent index. Here it goes:

I ended up with 15 stocks from the 3 exchanges, split into 4 different categories, in each category i tried to limit the amount of duplicates (so each category has a variety of business sectors or risks) based on conclusions of my research, i'm not gonna go through each individual stock here because that would take a few pages of text, but i'll briefly summarize the categories and explain the reasoning behind the divisions, aswell as point out a few of the stocks.

Group A: This group involves only 3 stocks, but represents no less than 38.30% of the total. In this group i put: FED, CR and SAS.
Brief reason to put these 3 here: all are in different biz sectors, and all are better than all others in their category.

Group B: This group involves 4 stocks, and represents 34.04% of the total. In this group i put companies which didn't beat the 3 above, some came just short... SLG, ISE, DDE, RDX. The one reason i see to criticize this group is that both DDE and RDX are in same group, the simple reason why those 2 fit here is because their models are quiet different. If one marks-to-market the land those 2 companies hold, RDX is beyond bancrupt, while DDE is still at some distance from it.

Group C: This group involves 5 stocks, and represents 21.28% of the total. In this group i put those who don't quiet qualify for "B". TFIG, CAR, FAG, ZEN, MLS. A well diverse group, a financial services company, 2 content developers, one content reseller and a landlord.

Group D: This is the smallet of them all, just 3 stocks, and represents only 6.38% of the total. Also very important companies to the market, unfortunately despite their great efforts i found out they couldn't qualify for the higher levels. Those companies are: ITA, NIC and VST

Here's the complete list, from my spreadsheets, based on equal weith on each group member in it's group.
Ticker - Weigth - Sector
FED    12.77%    (A - Content development)
CR    12.77%    (A - Land)
SAS    12.77%    (A - Currency)
SLG    8.51%    (B - Currency)
ISE    8.51%    (B - Financial Services)
DDE    8.51%    (B - Land)
RDX    8.51%    (B - Land)
TFIG    4.26%    (C - Financial Services)
CAR    4.26%    (C - Content development)
FAG    4.26%    (C - Content sales)
ZEN    4.26%    (C - Land)
MLS    4.26%    (C - Content development)
ITA    2.13%    (D - Land)
NIC    2.13%    (D - Land)
VST    2.13%    (D - Financial Services, and content development)

And that is where 40% of the raised 59400.00 L$ would be allocated. If one does the math on this portfolio, this would return more or less 1.2% / month on invested capital. That's if shares were purchased on the mid-level of the trading averages, with smarter bid placements one could do about 2%. And one can do another 2% a month easily from flipping the shares. Which isn't a fantastc rate of return, but it's not bad. The bad part is the risks involved doing this, and the best case scenario if one successfully navigated the risks at the end of the day isn't worth celebrating.

The solution to this challenge, has always been in the history of mankinds approach to business: to make an obligation (a contract stating a debt). The most common, and most simple form is a fixed-term loan, and for same reason it's the one best suited for consumers rather than business due to it's inflexibility and fixed-costs (also often referred to as "last resort"). The 2nd most common are floating rate loans, which are slightly more flexible. And then there are also exchange traded bonds, which have lots of flexibilities on top of what both fixed and floating term loans have, but still rarely suitable for a "paper company" (or for dealing with equity investments, given the risks for the creditor are pretty identical to the risks associated with where the borrowed money would be allocated at end of the day the creditor would have to be compensated almost equally, hence risk-to-reward here is not worth taking). There is however a way, it can become painfully expensive, but that comes at the advantage of having zero "borrowing expenses".

With this index i presented here above, which i hope we can agree will not satisfy everybody but it does reflect quiet accurately the most fundamental stocks, and with that the overall health of the market. If you happen to believe that the propability of this index going down is just as good as the propability of it going up you're going to love this product...

The Invesrse RA portfolio X2 (to be lanched by RA as a seperate IPO)

If you happen to be a follower of Hugo's "predictions" for 2010 that this year is the last, or propably you happen to follow Duke Mercy's conclusions that sl stocks are ponzis, maybe you have your own bearish predictions... Or maybe you're just another person like me, who want to navigate the market and profit from it regardless of which way it goes ?

As i described in the VSIF thread, this would be the function of this inverse fund, in case you missed it here's how it works (briefly):

As i stated above after RA ipo fills its networth would be ~100k. Now RA also sells-short this inverse product (sells an IPO with the obligation to buy it back, tracking twice it's movement), we'll place it on a simplified balance-sheet:
(please note that i add the cash from this products IPO on top of RA's existing cash)

ASSETS:
Cash: 109400.00
Stocks: 40304.59
Total Assets:  149704.59

LIABILITIES:
RA-InverseX2: 50000.00

Networth: 99704.59 (this at this point is same as in the balance-sheet above, with the exception of more cash and a liability line, the effects of which i'll show below)

Let's suppose this index is worth 10% less some time from now, in such case on your investment in RA you'd lose most likely more than 10% (depending on how close RA's current portfolio would be compared to the "desired portfolio"... a big PS! here: the portfolio of the inverse product will never change, that will be set before it goes to IPO so everyone knows what they're buying. While RA on the otherhand will be a managed fund which will have some room for changes, like any other managed fund). For now, for sake of simplicity in this example let's suppose RA didn't invest any of the funds and the "desired portfolio"-index dived 10%.

ASSETS:
Cash: 109400.00
Stocks: 36274.13 (down 10%)
Total Assets:  145674.13 (down 2.7%)

LIABILITIES:
RA-InverseX2: 60000.00 (up 20%)

Networth: 85674.13 (down 14%)

In this case as you can see, you could have made a risk-free 6% profit, that is if you invested an equal amount into both RA and RA's inverse product (before dividends), while if you only invested into this bear product you'd make a nice 20% return.

In the opposite scenario (index increase of 10%) you'd lose 6%, if you also put same amount of money into both. While if you put all into just RA you'd make more than if you did invest directly into the stocks RA holds (that's on top of trading profits and dividends).

I hope you found this interesting and i'm looking forward to hear your feedback on this.



PS!: By voing for this one you're also voting for RA's 1st IPO product (the inverse fund), of course if this one passes and RA wants to launch another product that will go through normal vote (so this is not an attempt to gain "auto-approval" for all future IPO's, but rather to merge the 2 into one vote/discussion.


Discontent is the first necessity of progress.
-- Thomas Edison

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#2 2010-01-10 09:43:01

elialemorigi
Long Term Investor
From: Milan - Italy
Registered: 2008-02-27
Posts: 674
Website

Re: Should Risk Architecture IPO be approved?

I’m voting yes because I’m curious to see how this new system is going to work and Andy is quite reliable.

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#3 2010-01-10 13:19:23

percyfotherington
Moderator
Registered: 2008-10-02
Posts: 276

Re: Should Risk Architecture IPO be approved?

interesting idea.

just show me what happens on the IPO setup if your fund goes to zero, ie falls 100%?

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#4 2010-01-11 01:48:03

AndyGrant
Moderator
Registered: 2008-02-28
Posts: 1748
Website

Re: Should Risk Architecture IPO be approved?

percyfotherington wrote:

interesting idea.

just show me what happens on the IPO setup if your fund goes to zero, ie falls 100%?

I don't believe thats possible. Of course the index can go bad, some of the key players can go bust. And i have to do proper preparations for those scenarios.

One thing which is worth mentioning, the product IPO, would be offered exactly like i did offer LLE earlier (and same as RL ETF's work) i'd buy and sell shares of it at all times slightly below and above nav. So it is liquid, and ivestors know there is no liquidity risk. RA's advantage of doing it this way is that assuming the index sharply decline (that would normally mean increased interest for the ETF), RA could then sell additional shares of its product at a higher price, this allows RA to then have more reserve cash for taking opportunities (such as buying oversold stocks). While RA's stock will be structured slightly differently, yes it will also have a large amount of treasury shares but it will allow much more price fluctuation (of course if the price is extremely high the fund would release more shares, and likewise if it's shares trade significantely below it's nav it would buy back those shares, but it wouldn't be as active in stabilizing the price as its own product would)

Of course, for each 1% the index declines, the debt to equity ratio increases by 2%, so there is a serious danger of getting into a debt spiral, despite the fact that the lower the index goes the more expensively RA could sell its product, meaning we get more cash with less debt, but it can still get into a non-reversible spiral.

The way market conditions are now, i find a "debt spiral scenario" very highly unlikely. If market conditions change a lot, and my strategy fails to deal with it optimally, then we'll then have to review the approach.

Also relevant to those risks, is the dividend policy. This fund should of course pay as high returns as possible, but due to the leverage it will not be in its own interest (nor its own shareholders interest) to pay as high dividends as investors may be used to from sl funds (which often have been close to 90% of earnings regularly). When debt-to-equity ratio is low there is no reason to retain earnings (at all) and they can aswell be distributed to stockholders, but in case debt develop greater than assets no dividend would be paid until that ratio balances out.

One more thing while i'm posting, the NAV update... Obviously 15 stocks is A LOT to keep track of, and if people can't get the nav with one click they most likely will lose interest, i'll try to make a real-time NAV hud simular to the one i developed for LLE investors (so you just wear it and you get the realtime nav displayed). However it's a bit more tricky to do with sl stocks than it was with virwox L$/Eur rate, especially due to price fluctuations aswell as spreads, and the fact that i can't (unlike virwox) get a feed of historical average prices (ie: 30 day average would be most optimal), so i'll have to do something more creative this time. I was thinking to grab last prices a few times and pull an avg of that, problem with this approach is that it would fail to represent real value (someone could dump 100k shares and then buy back 1 share at market price), a better approach would propably be to use bid-ask avg as price, when the spread widens it would more accurately represent current price. Unless someone has an even better idea i'll go with the bid-ask avg method for now.


Discontent is the first necessity of progress.
-- Thomas Edison

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#5 2010-01-11 05:24:39

InsouciantYue
Moderator
From: Network 23
Registered: 2008-02-27
Posts: 2113

Re: Should Risk Architecture IPO be approved?

"real time NAV" - Could Cocky's feed be modified a bit?   Perhaps approach (and pay him/ISE?) to generate it, even pulling from the others and packaging it to you?  Or you could build the data up (after 30 days of daily feed comes in) to get your "30 day average" but truly you'd want to know every transaction, not just a daily "end result" (that could be manipulated as you said with the "last price standing" rather artificial).


"People who work for a living should live better than those who don't."

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#6 2010-01-11 06:51:27

AndyGrant
Moderator
Registered: 2008-02-28
Posts: 1748
Website

Re: Should Risk Architecture IPO be approved?

InsouciantYue wrote:

"real time NAV" - Could Cocky's feed be modified a bit?   Perhaps approach (and pay him/ISE?) to generate it, even pulling from the others and packaging it to you?  Or you could build the data up (after 30 days of daily feed comes in) to get your "30 day average" but truly you'd want to know every transaction, not just a daily "end result" (that could be manipulated as you said with the "last price standing" rather artificial).

ISE already streams those values in the "company research page", and that's something i could manually check at end of month. It would of course help if i could avoid doing this manually.

Optimally all exchanges should provide this data, on capex for example nobody knows what stocks are worth because they simply don't report it.

For now ithink, bid-ask data would be sufficient. While ise stands for over 72% of this index, i still would like to use same procedure for all exchanges otherwise it would be kinda weird to use different valuations.


Discontent is the first necessity of progress.
-- Thomas Edison

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#7 2010-01-12 07:16:59

AndyGrant
Moderator
Registered: 2008-02-28
Posts: 1748
Website

Re: Should Risk Architecture IPO be approved?

The vote is very one-sided. Compared to last poll (CR), total amount of votes cast was 32, this poll is currently at 15. I'd say we can conclude this one will pass, and should enter IPO as soon as possible.

Since the poll started, some of the financial assets have changed (in our favour), below is the most updated financial report (it includes all trading activity since this poll was introduced).

BALANCE-SHEET:   

ASSETS:   

Cash    671.37
Investments (NPV)    33882.94
Unrealized gains    6966.01 (based on 30 day avg. price)
Total assets    41520.32

LIABILITIES   
none    0.00

NETWORTH    41520.32
   
   
INCOME STATEMENT:   
Net gain (loss) on sale of investments    34.37 (sale of 637 CR shares @ 1.07)
   
EQUITY, CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL RATIOS   

Total invested capital    34519.94
ROI %    20.279%
ROE %    0.083%
EPS    0.000426332
Equity / Share    0.515082884
PB Ratio %    97.07%

(per share ratios are made on the basis of the shares i create as posted in the initial post here, 80609 shares, total invested capital = all shares purchased to compile this portfolio over recent few weeks).

Current portfolio is:

Ticker, shares #, NPV / share
FED    8816    1.308846188
CR    10092    1
SAS    6207    1.50264574
SLG    3799    0.77

Overall, the IPO actually got better for you, after ISE fees (1% on IPO) you'll still get a PB discount of almost 2%.

Last edited by AndyGrant (2010-01-12 07:35:14)


Discontent is the first necessity of progress.
-- Thomas Edison

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#8 2010-01-12 07:53:23

elialemorigi
Long Term Investor
From: Milan - Italy
Registered: 2008-02-27
Posts: 674
Website

Re: Should Risk Architecture IPO be approved?

seems like is up to Cocky at this point! smile

btw, any reason for the name Risk Architecture?

Last edited by elialemorigi (2010-01-12 07:54:56)

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#9 2010-01-12 09:26:48

AshleighWade
Long Term Investor
From: New York, NY
Registered: 2008-03-03
Posts: 328
Website

Re: Should Risk Architecture IPO be approved?

AndyGrant wrote:

Optimally all exchanges should provide this data, on capex for example nobody knows what stocks are worth because they simply don't report it.

Is this what you are looking for?

http://www.slcapex.com/trades/history/FED
http://www.slcapex.com/trades/download/FED - May have to log in for the xls download.


http://www.slcapex.com/trades/history/ZEN
http://www.slcapex.com/trades/download/ZEN - May have to log in for the xls download.

Last edited by AshleighWade (2010-01-12 09:28:50)

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#10 2010-01-12 10:09:40

AndyGrant
Moderator
Registered: 2008-02-28
Posts: 1748
Website

Re: Should Risk Architecture IPO be approved?

AshleighWade wrote:

AndyGrant wrote:

Optimally all exchanges should provide this data, on capex for example nobody knows what stocks are worth because they simply don't report it.

Is this what you are looking for?

http://www.slcapex.com/trades/history/FED
http://www.slcapex.com/trades/download/FED - May have to log in for the xls download.


http://www.slcapex.com/trades/history/ZEN
http://www.slcapex.com/trades/download/ZEN - May have to log in for the xls download.

Nope, they don't include the most important data (the avg).

here's all i get:

Price History                       
FED: Ford Edelman & Co.                       
Date    High    Low    Close    Bid    Ask    Volume
12/17/2009 6:00    3    1.4    2    1.37    2.2    7936

Thats an extract from 12/17. What i need to know is at what AVG did those 7936 shares change hands ? Based on this data all i know is that it did happen somewhere between 1.4 and 3.00 / Share (so i can miss the actual avg by 100%).

Does the 7936 shares represent a trade worth 23808 L$ (if they changed hands at 3.00 L$ / share) or was it at 1.40 L$, somewhere in between ? This is the guessing game i want to avoid.

Edit to add:

The capex charts already use L$ value in their charts (on the main page) rather than shares amount for volume. "All" Chango needs to do is dsiplay that number in text next to the volume column and we have the exact avg trade data (i don't know the capex platform and such, but the fix shouldn't be too much work. While it may seem like a bagatelle ithink it's an important data the market needs, especially if we're calculating NAV, or estimating future value for our investments).

Last edited by AndyGrant (2010-01-12 10:22:34)


Discontent is the first necessity of progress.
-- Thomas Edison

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#11 2010-01-12 12:10:24

AndyGrant
Moderator
Registered: 2008-02-28
Posts: 1748
Website

Re: Should Risk Architecture IPO be approved?

elialemorigi wrote:

seems like is up to Cocky at this point! smile

btw, any reason for the name Risk Architecture?

Yeah, its all up to him

As for the name, i thought it would perfectly describe it's role. Building on risk. smile


Discontent is the first necessity of progress.
-- Thomas Edison

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#12 2010-01-12 12:13:11

cockydagger
Administrator
From: Simpsonville, SC
Registered: 2008-02-24
Posts: 2392
Website

Re: Should Risk Architecture IPO be approved?

Sounds fine by me.  I'll put it up later tonight when I get home.


I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.

Woody Allen

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#13 2010-01-12 12:24:26

InsouciantYue
Moderator
From: Network 23
Registered: 2008-02-27
Posts: 2113

Re: Should Risk Architecture IPO be approved?

closing poll (thread)


"People who work for a living should live better than those who don't."

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